From Aspiration to Disillusion? The Political Consequences of AI-driven Employment Threats
Best Paper Prize, CIVICA EU Conference on Political Behaviour, CEU 2025
IBEI AI & Politics Workshop 2025 slides
Abstract
The expansion of higher education in advanced economies reinforces the belief that investing in skills guarantees economic security and desired career prospects. However, recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence challenge this premise by restructuring demand for high-skill occupations and creating new risks and opportunities for graduates. This paper asks: What are the political consequences of AI-driven labour market change among the highly educated? I develop a framework linking AI-induced labour-market shocks to beliefs in system fairness, redistribution and voting behaviour. I argue that AI affects graduates’ employability differentially depending on their field of study. While some fields are associated with career trajectories increasingly vulnerable to AI-driven substitution, others are more likely to benefit from AI’s augmentative effects. To test this claim, I combine twenty-five waves of the British Election Study Internet Panel with monthly occupational vacancy data from Textkernel–ONS (2017–2025) and occupation-level indices of AI exposure. Exploiting the release of ChatGPT in December 2022 as a natural experiment in a difference-in-difference design, I show that AI produces political divisions within the highly educated. When AI reduces graduates’ expected employability, individuals perceive the system as unfair and withdraw support from mainstream parties. Conversely, when AI complements existing skills and enhances employability, fairness beliefs and support for incumbent parties are reinforced. By demonstrating how Generative AI reshapes political behaviour and divides the highly educated, this paper contributes to ongoing debates on the political consequences of AI and dealignment in advanced capitalist democracies.
Aspirational, Still? Local House Price Increases and Political Preferences
APSA 2025 slides
Abstract
Housing unaffordability heightens political conflict across advanced democracies. As prices surge, homeowners benefit from asset appreciation, while renters face soaring rental costs and are priced out of the housing market. The literature focuses on homeownership as a source of economic and political conservatism. Yet, evidence about the implications of renting remains scarce. This paper argues that the political divide between homeowners and renters widens when renters lose the expectation of future homeownership and perceive themselves as stuck in the rental market. Focusing on the United Kingdom, this paper employs a shift-share instrument that leverages local variation in housing characteristics and the aggregate change in their prices to show the causal effect of house price changes on the political attitudes and voting intentions of renters. It finds that exogenous appreciation strengthens pro-redistributive attitudes but also intensifies cultural concerns against immigrants. Electorally, housing shocks boost support for the Labour Party. The paper provides new evidence on the deepening political cleavage between owners and renters, offering new insights into the mechanism linking house prices to rising polarisation in advanced democracies.
Unmet Expectations and Attitudes toward the Role of Government
EPSA 2024 slides
Abstract
From diminishing income returns to education to hiring freezes, young labour market entrants in advanced democracies are experiencing economic insecurity. While growing up with the meritocratic belief that education ensures rewards, they are now witnessing a mismatch between their expectations and reality. This paper examines the political effects of this trend in the United Kingdom. It argues that the gap between expectations formed in early adulthood and real outcomes across the life cycle changes beliefs about the fairness of the market system, thereby increasing demands for government intervention in the economy. Using 30 waves of the British Household Panel Survey (Understanding Society) dataset, the paper finds that unmet early income expectations are a stronger predictor of attitudes towards economic interventionism than real earnings. If such a gap occurs during formative years, it may leave a lasting imprint. Moreover, it is stronger among those with higher education and from more privileged social class backgrounds. The paper contributes to the literature on redistribution preferences by shedding new light on the subjective mechanisms behind economic attitudes and unveiling the political implications of economic disappointment at a young age.
Other Projects
Economic Shocks and the Masculinity Threat
with
Philipp Heyna
and
Djordje Milosav
Summary
Recent evidence suggests that support for far-right parties is growing among young men across Western democracies. While existing research links the far-right male vote to middle-aged and older cohorts, it remains unclear why this pattern is now emerging among younger men. Established economic accounts emphasise economic insecurity and social status decline, whereas cultural explanations highlight a backlash against changing gender norms. However, we know little about how these processes interact. This paper proposes a new theoretical framework integrating masculinity norms, economic insecurity, and far-right support. We argue that conservative young men hold expectations of upward mobility in line with their gender role. When these are undermined by exposure to economic insecurity, they perceive a threat to their masculine identity. In response, they reaffirm traditional gender norms and become more likely to support far-right parties that promise to restore gender hierarchy. We aim to test this argument using observational causal evidence and a survey experiment in three European countries. Our findings will advance understanding of the drivers of youth support for the far-right and inform strategies to safeguard democratic stability.
My research examines the political consequences of economic insecurity in Western Europe. I investigate three central sources of insecurity: declining income returns to education, the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and housing unaffordability.
Using panel and administrative data, I apply both observational and causal-inference methods to analyse how these experiences widen the gap between individual expectations and realised outcomes, fostering distrust in market institutions and detachment from mainstream politics.
I show that young people are most sensitive to a crisis in future expectations, suggesting long-term important implications for the future of European democracies.
I am an affiliate of Nuffield College (University of Oxford) and a Research Assistant at the
Nuffield Politics Research Centre.
I am also affiliated with the
LSE Data Science Institute and serve as LSE representative to the
European Graduate Network.
In spring I will visit the
University of Zurich, hosted by
Thomas Kurer.
I hold a BSc in Political Science from the
University of Pisa and an MA from the
University of Florence, where I was an honours student at the
Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies and the
Scuola Normale Superiore.
I also hold an MSc in Comparative Politics from the
LSE, funded by the
Ermenegildo Zegna Founder’s Scholarship.
Previously, I was a
Blue Book Trainee at the European Commission’s DG CNECT.
More details in my CV.
